Project SENTRY — Sub-National Economic Nowcasting with Transport and Radiancy Yield

Real-time macroeconomic nowcasting and spatial econometrics engine tracking Philippine National and Regional Gross Domestic Product (GRDP) and Provincial Product Accounts (PPA) with conformal prediction bounds.

Active Live Nowcast Metrics (2026 Horizon)

Philippine Real GDP Nowcast Growth Rate

+6.17%

Spatial Autoregressive Coupling (rho)

0.8807

PPA-GRDP Stone Conservation Residual

≤ 1e-06 (100.0% EXACT)

National Aggregate Output Level

24,662,167,213k PHP

Sub-National Jurisdictions Tracked

18 Administrative Regions, 135 Provincial and Highly Urbanized City (HUC) Accounts

Econometric Models in Meta-Ensemble

Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), L1/L2 ElasticNet, LightGBM Gradient Boosting, U-MIDAS Mixed-Data Sampling

Spatial Matrix Specification

Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) Trade Flow Matrix (alpha* = 0.65, coupling rho = 0.412)

Lead Developer & Data Ingestion Engineer

Shan Kenneth Bayon-on (SLCLS)

Developer & Quantitative Analyst

Mikhail Davies